Are pilot numbers increasing or decreasing?

By Adam Hunt
In his column (President’s Position, AOPA Pilot, July 2005) AOPA President Phil Boyer discussed the decline in the number of U.S. pilots. Boyer said the USA has seen a loss of 20% of their active pilots in the past 20 years.
He placed part of the blame for declining pilot numbers on the negative press aviation has been getting in that country and challenged the aviation industry to turn around the public perception which has resulted. Reading these statements immediately made COPA wonder whether the same trend is occurring here in Canada. Transport Canada does publish historical numbers for active pilots, but not for the past 20 years. However, data for the 16 year period from 1988-2003 is available.
“Active pilot” is defined as someone having a pilot licence or permit and a current medical that validates it. The numbers available for Canada are complete and provide annual data for each type of licence and permit. These have been divided into the “professional licences” – Commercial Pilot and Airline Transport Pilot, both for airplanes and helicopters and the “recreational licences” including the Private Pilot - airplanes and helicopters, Glider Pilot, balloon, recreational permit, ultralight permit and gyroplane permit.
It should be noted there is some overlap here, since many holders of commercial and ATPL licences do not fly professionally, but use their licences only for personal flying. Also some “recreational licence” holders, like some balloon pilots, only fly professionally. This means the overall pilot numbers are probably the most important.
While the Canadian data shows the numbers fluctuate from year to year, overall we are gaining active pilots, not losing them. In the 16 year period for which we have data the number of active “professional pilots” has increased 31%. At the same time the number of active “recreational pilots” has increased 3%.
The overall increase in active pilots between 1988-2003 was 11%.
Combined with the Canadian aircraft registration statistics which also show a distinct gain in privately-owned aircraft we can only conclude, aviation is growing in Canada, both in the short term and in the long term.
Why the USA is seeing a decrease in active pilots while Canada is seeing growth is a mystery. Regardless of what the reasons may be, we all need to be active, not only in flying, but in effecting a positive public perception of aviation in Canada so that this positive trend in activity continues.