Decisions, decisions

Chock to chock
by Dale Nielsen

Pilot decision-making is like any other decision-making. To make a good decision we need information, we need to analyze the situation, and we need to assess the risks. Too many of us seem to think flying is different. We seem to think the extensive training we’ve had gives us such superior skill that we have no need to spend even a minimum amount of time doing what is necessary to form a considered judgment of a given situation.
According to T.F. Kelly of the Transportation Safety Board, weather-related accidents result from one or more of the following: pilots lack valid weather information; they don’t understand the risk; they don’t have the skills to cope with the situations encountered; they make inappropriate decisions; and/or they lack the procedures to successfully avoid the hazard.
Any accident can be avoided if we have enough information, understand and manage the risks involved, and make a good decision.
Transport Canada breaks pilot decision-making into two components: situational awareness and risk management.

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
Situational awareness means understanding everything that is going on around you at all times. This includes the current weather, the possibility of it getting worse, the terrain you are flying over and what lies ahead, the status of your fuel, the traffic around you, and your own stress level. Loss of situational awareness means losing critical pieces of knowledge required for safe flight.
All of Kelly’s reasons for accidents stem from a lack of situational awareness, except for the lack of skills. The skills he is talking about may not be required if situational awareness is maintained.
Loss of situational awareness can result from a lack of knowledge about your aircraft, the weather, the environment, or your own limitations. When your workload increases to the point where it is impossible to keep up with all required tasks, situational awareness can be lost. If you are impulsive, invulnerable, macho, anti-authority or fatalistic, you may not recognize a situation or react appropriately to it. Situational awareness can also be lost through false assumptions (people often react to what they expect to see and hear, rather than what they do see and hear); fixation with one problem or task to the exclusion of all others; a lack of currency with the aircraft, instruments and navigation procedures; physiological factors (including illness, fatigue, poor nutrition, hypoxia, inappropriate medication, alcohol or drugs, disorientation or vertigo, carbon monoxide poisoning, excess heat or cold, noise and vibration); and poor communications with ATC, maintenance personnel and passengers.

RISK MANAGEMENT
Some risks are acceptable while others are not. We have to learn to identify the risks involved with a given flight, decide which to accept, and then manage them in such a way as to reduce their possible effects on us.
Risk management includes managing the following risk elements:

• Your person – be fit, well rested, well fed, and avoid excess heat, cold noise, etc;

• The flight – complete thorough flight planning, a detailed pre-flight aircraft inspection, a thorough run-up, and continuously monitor instruments and gauges;

• The environment – get a good weather briefing, study the route of flight, and continuously monitor the weather and the route; and

• The reason for the flight – is it really that important?

Risk management also means using all available people, facilities and information to the best advantage, including Air Traffic Control, Flight Service Stations, crash/fire rescue services, navigation aids, and other pilots.
A pilot was following a highway through higher terrain to his destination. The weather at the point of departure was a low overcast with good visibility underneath. Initially, over the higher ground, the ceilings were lower and there was occasional drizzle. Eventually the cloud met the ground, becoming fog. When the pilot encountered the fog, he attempted to turn around. He lost control, crashed, and died.
A Piper Cherokee PA 28-160 departed on a search with the pilot, two passengers and full fuel, despite being advised that full fuel might make him a little heavy for the altitudes he was planning to search. During the search, the pilot entered a high altitude valley and flew up the valley. The aircraft was not able to climb faster than the terrain, and stalled into the ground. All three people on board were killed.
The first pilot lost situational awareness. We have no way of knowing whether it was because he did not have enough weather information, he did not know the terrain, he was affected by stress, or his personality pushed him to continue into the weather. It also appears that he did not adequately assess, or manage, the risks inherent in the flight.
The second pilot obviously did not assess and manage his risks adequately. An actual search does put a significant amount of pressure on a pilot, and perhaps some risks that wouldn’t be acceptable for a sightseeing flight may be acceptable for a search mission. Some risks are not acceptable in any case. Judgment is required to tell the difference. This pilot’s lack of judgment may have been affected by a loss of situational awareness caused by personality. The other situational awareness factors were ruled out during the investigation.
The end result is that both pilots made bad decisions. The first pushed the weather beyond his limits, an unacceptable risk. The second pilot took on more fuel than was prudent for the flight (possibly acceptable), and then entered a high-altitude valley and flew uphill (not acceptable), and something he had been specifically trained as a search pilot not to do.
Transport Canada has a poster that states: "A superior pilot is one who stays out of trouble by using superior judgment to avoid situations that might require the use of superior skill."
In the two cases described above, even the pilots’ superior skill was not enough.
Let’s not add ourselves to the statistics. Let’s maintain situational awareness at all times. Let’s manage our risks within reasonable limits. Let’s make good decisions.